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In these impermanent times, college basketball seasons can be made or broken by what happens in the spring. Specifically, which players keep their names in the NBA draft, and which pull out. North Carolina all but won the 2009 national title in spring 2008, when all its key components opted to return to school. Kansas firmed up a successful 2009-10 season last spring, when Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich decided to remain Jayhawks. Speculation about next season started as soon as Gordon Hayward's shot bounced off the rim in Indianapolis on April 5. But only now do we have a fairly firm sense of who will be in uniform come Midnight Madness next October. (And even that remains open to late signings, grade situations and/or NCAA eligibility issues.)
This year's biggest two offseason winners are the top two in my list of 10 teams to watch in 2010-11, plus another baker's dozen that could make some major noise:
1. Purdue: Boilermakers fans had their hearts broken in February when Robbie Hummel blew out his knee, derailing a potential dream Final Four in nearby Indianapolis. But now maybe it's just a dream deferred a year. With JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore both pulling out of the draft and Hummel presumably mended by the fall, Purdue fans would be willing to make the longer commute to Houston if the need arises.
2. Duke: Kyle Singler's decision to return for his senior season puts the Blue Devils in prime contention for a repeat national title -- and Mike Krzyzewski knows a thing or two about repeating, having done it in 1991-92. If celebrated freshman guard Kyrie Irving can partially offset the loss of Jon Scheyer, and the two-headed Plumlee plan can do the same replacing Brian Zoubek, Duke should again dominate the ACC.
3. Michigan State: Let's get this out of the way now: The Spartans will struggle at various times next season. Accept that, and don't get off the bandwagon. Don't let it shake the belief that, no matter what, they'll make a push for the Final Four when all is said and done. To doubt Sparty is to ignore recent history under Tom Izzo.
4. Pittsburgh: The Panthers overachieved last season, winning 25 games with only a single senior playing a major role. Expect more next season from a program still trying to shatter the Elite Eight ceiling that has hovered above it in recent years. In a Big East that has lost a lot of sizzle, Pitt could be the clear preseason favorite.
5. Kansas: The Big 12 should once again be very good at the top next season. And even after losing three of its top four scorers, Kansas might be the best of the bunch. The Jayhawks return five key players from a 33-victory team that dominated the league, plus have some returning talent that couldn't break into the rotation last season. And then there's the addition of freshman stud Josh Selby to the mix.
